Posted To: MBS Commentary
Bonds bumped higher in yield by Brexit polls overnight Brexit vote is ongoing and results won’t be final until early tomorrow morning No impact from economic data today Neither side of the Brexit trade is fully priced-in, leaving plenty of room for volatility tomorrow I don’t usually have high-conviction feelings about what markets will do in the future. When I do, it is almost always in the form of expecting volatility. That’s how I feel about tomorrow morning’s opening levels in bond markets. It’s one of the few times I think it’s fairly safe to say that we’ll see a relatively big move in a logical direction. What is relatively big? Something on the order of 8-10 bps in 10yr yields. It could be a little higher or lower, but my sense is that the Brexit result implies…(read more )